My intro to Nayib Bukele
Is Nayib Bukele’s democratic authoritarianism a blueprint for the future of global politics in developing countries? (emergent economies) Let me go back a few years and tell you about the first time I heard of Nayib Bukele. The year was 2013 and I was in El Salvador visiting family. It was around lunch time and I was with my grandparents, uncle and a few other relatives watching “Noticiero mediodia” aka the midday news. I watched Bukele on tv, listened to what he was saying and the way he spoke…and before that program ended, I was convinced this was the guy who would change the country.
He was running under the left-wing FMLN party, which by the way was formed legally as a political party as part of the peace negotiations that took place in Chapultepec Castle, Mexico in 1992, I voiced my opinion about him and my family thought I was crazy and too young to understand politics. (I had done some research and discovered he spoke fluent English!) I told my uncle, watch…..this guy will move onto to San Salvador and then make a run for the Presidency. My uncle has always been a good listener and he listened to my “argument”. I told my uncle; “the last time ES went to the World Cup was 1982. We have basically had 2 “coaches steering the ship” since then. Has either one of them taken us back to the World Cup? Nope. This is the guy, who for now is coaching the youth team, but he is the new “coaching” option for the country. WATCH. So here we are in 2024 and ES is living under the mandate of the self proclaimed “worlds coolest dictator”.
Bukele’s rise
A brief recap on Bukele’s appearance on the political stage: 2012 – New kid on the block. Runs for Mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlan, a small town just outside the capital of San Salvador. Campaigns under the slogan, “there is enough money when no one steals” – a clear jab at previous administrations of all levels, municipal or national. Corruption in Latin America is nothing new. What is new is the way Bukele is conducting politics. He is getting things done. Delivering on his campaign promises.
2015 – FMLN continues with their refresh by choosing Bukele as candidate for San Salvador (a bastion of FMLN support as the party at one point had won 3 mayoral elections in a row since the 1992 peace accords were signed) Bukele’s political star continues to rise under his campaign slogans; “San Salvador without potholes”, “one job per day”. Bukele is elected Mayor of San Salvador for the period 2015 – 2018.
Bukele continues with donating his salary towards scholarships. Bukele renovates city squares such as Plaza Libertad (Liberty Square) and continues with pedestrian friendly renovations to the historic old town district of San Salvador. Pothole repairs were addressed as the public uploaded pictures to Twitter for municipal workers to be aware of. Unfortunately, lots of potholes still exist, just like in Toronto.
2017 – Bukele begins to have differences with members of the party he belongs to. Some of these differences are made public via Twitter and the Salvadoran population enjoys and supports him completely. He is eventually expelled from FMLN for being accused of fostering divisions within the party.
2018 – New Ideas party is recognized by El Salvador’s election tribunal. This is where I believe the Bukele phenomenon is solidified. The Constitution requires 50,000 signatures to form a political party. His New Ideas party was able to gather 200,000 signatures in 3 days! Think about that!
2019 – Wins the Presidency under GANA political party after the electoral tribunal blocked Bukele’s participation in the Presidential election under his New Ideas party due to lack of representation in the Legislative Assembly as his party had never received 50,000 electoral votes.
This shows he was still navigating the political ocean but this was simply a “sailing through choppy waters” moment. Bukele goes on to win the Presidency with 1.4 million votes. The ARENA candidate receives about 857,000 votes and the FMLN candidate receives about 389,000 votes. He won with 53% of the vote, 21% more than his closest rival. Voter turnout was approximately 52%.
2021 – Bukele’s New Ideas party wins 56 of 84 (66%) seats in the Legislative Assembly mid term elections. This new political party had just won a super majority. Something that no other party had ever done! Let’s put that into perspective.
Bukele’s New Ideas party did not participate in the 2018 Legislative Elections where the 2 major political parties, ARENA and FMLN had won 37 and 23 seats respectively. Bukele’s New Ideas party movement starts to erode the political capital that the traditional right-wing and left-wing parties once had. This is reflected, in my opinion by the fact that FMLN is not even the party with the 3 rd most representation in the Legislative Assembly. That now belongs to GANA which won 5 seats (I call this the Bukele effect) versus FMLN who won only 4 seats. ARENA’s representation is reduced to less that 40% of its previous seat total by having won 14 seats!
2024 – He is going to win the election with more than 85% of the vote. The last election that I could find where a candidate received over 80% of the vote (in a country where free and democratic elections are held) was the 2002 France election where Chirac won with 82% of the vote!
So how did El Salvador get to this “tipping point” that seems to be of concern to some popular media outlets, NGOs, think tanks, international observers etc? Maybe the better question is why is El Salvador of concern to media outlets, NGOs, think tanks, international observers etc? Why would the international community be concerned about a country that went from having one of the highest homicide rates in the world to one that now has a homicide rate similar to Canada?
Why Bukele will win in a landslide!
The answer in my opinion is simple; after peace was negotiated in 1992, the 2 major political parties, the right-wing ARENA and the left-wing FMLN have been in a democratic ideological tug-of-war for almost 30 years!
They did not solve the gang problem, they did not tackle corruption or inequality. The result has been more bloodshed than during the civil war. Let’s stop to think about that for a minute. El Salvador suffered MORE bloodshed after Peace Accords were signed!
Why would anyone, in any country vote for either of the same 2 parties that have done basically nothing to improve the lives of their people?
El Salvador is not the only country where 2 parties dominate the political spectrum and Bukele has firmly established himself as a political disruptor and broke up the 2 party dominance once held by ARENA and FMLN.
In addition, Bukele’s political star has broken down the traditional way of how people look at democracy. If El Salvador doesn’t have democracy now, because of Bukele’s “power grab” and his overwhelming control of the 3 branches of Government (Executive, Judicial and Legislative), well then by default the country must have had democracy from 1992 – 2019. Right or am I wrong?
What did that democratic era bring to the Salvadoran people? I will tell you what it brought: it brought more bloodshed than during the civil war, lack of foreign investment, significant poverty amongst the population, lack of employment opportunities and negative headlines highlighting the violence in the country that once was the murder capital of the world.
Feb 4 th will cement the Salvadoran people’s rejection and discontent with the polarizing politics that once plagued the country and likely plague other countries, thus confirming that the way forward, to a more prosperous El Salvador is to leave those political parties in the dust and not look back. Today, Salvadorans are breathing a sense of peace and hope. Don’t believe me, go visit El Salvador and go breathe and see it for yourself. While you are there, enjoy the coffee, the various landscapes and the warmth of the Salvadoran people!
PS – Do not be surprised, if in the near future the Bukele model arrives in a country near you.
